A World Energy Plan in Quadrillion Btu
Revised: 3/30/2014 Model
Proven To Res. Quad Life Year Quad Quad
World Energy Reserves: Res. Quad Quad 2005 yrs Ends Used Left
Oil, billions of barrels 1,342 5.80 7,781 169.4 46 2060 4,669 3,112
Gas, trillions of cubic feet + shale 13,231 1.03 13,694 107.6 127 2141 9,108 4,586
Coal, billions of short tons 948 20.50 19,434 122.6 159 2173 15,716 3,718
Uranium, millions of pounds, 2*US 1,780 2.97 5,287 27.5 192 2206 4,015 1,272
Renewable energy 35.7
Totals 46,196 462.8 33,508 12,687
2005 Used
World % 2005 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500
Oil 36.6 169.4 100.0 0.0
Natural Gas 23.2 107.6 200.0 0.0
Coal, capture CO2 and metals 26.5 122.6 20.7 204.7 88.6 0.0
Uranium Fission 5.9 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 0.0
Renewable energy 7.7 35.7 151.8 267.9 383.9 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0
Quad Btu, sum 100.0 462.8 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0
Quad, fossil fuels 399.6 320.7 204.7 88.6 0.0
Fossil fuels, % 86.3 64.1 40.9 17.7 0.0
Quad Btu used 462.8 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 500.0
Efficiency, $trillion/Quad 0.131 0.153 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175
GDP (PPP), $trillions, CIA 60.7 76.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5
Pop, billions 6.52 7.54 6.52 5.27 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08
$1000's/person/year 9.3 10.2 13.4 16.6 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4
Population growth rate/year = 1.003 0.997 0.996 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Notes:
1. Proven reserves of fossil fuels are from: Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm
2. Use data for 2005 are from DOE/EIA International Energy Annual Table 1.8 online.
3. Total energy used is kept constant by 2050 to make transitions to alternatives.
4. Fission is uranium fission in nuclear reactors.
5. Renewable energy sources include hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal, etc.
6. Estimation of the lifetime of US uranium reserves at current rate of use:
       a. DOE/EIA estimates US reserves of U3O8 to be 890 million pounds.
       b. Assume U3O8 shipments are equal to current consumption per year.
       c. U3O8 shipments from 2002 to 2006 averaged 2.68 million pounds per year.
       d. Nuclear generation in 2003 was 7.96 quadrillion Btu. EIA US use.htm
       e. Thus, Quad Btu/million pounds = 7.96/2.68 = 2.97
       f.  I have found no estimate of world uranium reserves and estimate them as twice the US reserves.
7. Life equals estimated lifetime of resource at the selected production level.
8. Year Ends is the last year if 2008 were the first year.
9. I have used the UN world population estimate for 2005 and my estimates from:  World_model.htm
10. I have assumed that energy efficiency of the world GDP stabilizes in 2100.
What this plan would accomplish:
1. Oil and natural gas consumption would be cut in half by 2050.
2. Nuclear fission is kept constant to insure availability through 2150.
3. Solar, geothermal, etc. would be increased linearly up to 500 Quad Btu per year in 2200.
4. The balance needed to maintain 500 Quad Btu per year would come from coal.
5. The energy from fossil fuels would decrease from 86% in 2005 to 0% by 2200.
6. Energy efficiency is assumed to stabilize at about 0.175 by 2100.  CIA energy.htm
7. The GDP per capita would stabilize at $9,500 if the population stabilized at 9.2 billion.
8. This model clearly relates energy consumption, energy efficiency, GDP, and population.
For more information see: www.zpgjames.com