HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
9/20/2006
Historical+UN
Est Pop Difference Growth Growth Est T2 Est Pop
Year Millions Years Est Rate Est %/yr Yrs Added/yr
1 300 0
1250 400 1249 1.0002 0.02 3,009 92,143
1500 500 250 1.0009 0.09 777 446,486
1650 550 150 1.0006 0.06 1,091 349,582
1750 725 100 1.0028 0.28 251 2,005,606
1850 1,175 100 1.0048 0.48 144 5,687,228
1900 1,600 50 1.0062 0.62 112 9,910,100
1930 2,000 30 1.0075 0.75 93 14,931,700
1950 2,519 20 1.0116 1.16 60 29,256,012
1960 3,024 10 1.0184 1.84 38 55,681,882
1970 3,697 10 1.0203 2.03 35 75,012,422
1980 4,442 10 1.0185 1.85 38 82,386,668
1990 5,280 10 1.0174 1.74 40 91,949,749
2000 6,086 10 1.0143 1.43 49 87,084,501
2005 6,465 5 1.0122 1.22 57 78,624,856
2025 7,905 20 1.0101 1.01 69 79,912,642
2050 9,076 25 1.0055 0.55 125 50,272,986
My Projections LE = 64.77 LE = 64.77
(Model.xls) Births = 20.05 Births = 20.05
Change = 0.3362 Change = 0.3362
Deaths = 8.67 Deaths = 8.67
Pop = 6,525 Pop = 6,525
GDP = 60,710 GDP = 60,710
Quad = 446.44 Quad = 446.44
Births>=15.43 Births>=7.71
Year Pop, millions Pop, millions
2025 7,596 7,554
2050 8,794 7,581
2075 10,007 7,114
2100 11,192 6,561
2125 12,304 5,947
2150 13,295 5,297
2175 14,119 4,637
2200 14,738 3,989
2225 15,121 3,372
2250 15,247 3,029
2275 15,247 3,028
2300 15,247 3,028
2325 15,247 3,028
2350 15,247 3,028
2375 15,247 3,028
2400 15,247 3,028
2425 15,247 3,028
2450 15,247 3,028
2475 15,247 3,028
2500 15,247 3,028
2525 15,247 3,028
2550 15,247 3,028
2575 15,247 3,028
2600 15,247 3,028
2625 15,247 3,028
2650 15,247 3,028
2675 15,247 3,028
2700 15,247 3,028
GDP/c 3,982 20,048 $/person/year
Notes: 
1. Estimated population is from World Almanac 2002, 2006, and UN for post-1950.
2. Estimated growth rate is Pop(n)/Pop(n-1)^(1/Diff(n)) .
3. Estimated %/yr is 100*(rate-1).
4. Estimated doubling time, T2, is log(2)/log(rate).
5. The UN is assuming a continuing decline in the growth rate.
6. Improved sanitation accounts for most of the increase.
7. Decreasing birth rates are necessary for a stable population.