| US Federal Income and Expenses in current $Billions |
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| Updated on 4/4/16 using BEA Current-Dollar
data of 25 March 2016. |
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Entitlements (mainly Medicare, Medicaid, and |
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Social Security) are the main problem. |
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The Economist, 12/15-21/12, p 30. |
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| Notes: |
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| 1. Federal income in current
dollars is from CBO Table F-1. Expenses include increase
in debt (no games). |
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| 2. US GDP is also in current
dollars not adjusted for inflation. |
USstats.htm |
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| 3. National Debt figures for
past years are from: |
USdebt.htm |
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| In 1946, the debt was 121.2% of GDP,
but had been reduced to 87.6% of GDP by 1950. |
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| 4. The easy way to balance the
federal budget is to allocate 16% of projected revenue |
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| to each of 5 programs (Defense, Other
Discretionary, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) |
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| and use the last 20% to pay net
interest and reduce debt since (5*16+20) = 100. |
CBO_F1_F9.htm |
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| The G20 on 6/27/10 agreed to reduce
deficits by 50% by 2013, an 8-year transition for the USA. |
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| 5. If Congress will
not balance the budget, then the Whitehouse, Treasury, and Federal Reserve
should |
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| limit expenditures to projected revenue
using uniform percentage reductions. |
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| 6. If the voters and Congress
want to spend more, Congress should raise taxes. |
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Excessive stimulation under G. W. Bush and Obama |
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Annual |
Estimated |
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Federal |
US |
GDP |
Federal |
Federal |
Federal |
Balance |
interest |
Public |
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Total |
New Debt |
Annual |
Linear |
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|
Income |
GDP |
Growth |
Income |
Expenses |
Expenses |
to Debt |
at 3% |
Debt |
Debt/GDP |
|
New Debt |
New Debt |
per year |
Balance |
Population |
GDP/c |
GDP/c |
|
| Year |
$Billions |
$Billions |
%/yr |
% of GDP |
$Billions |
% of Income |
$Billions |
$Billions |
$Billions |
% |
President |
$Billions |
$Billions |
$Billions |
% of GDP |
millions |
$/pers/yr |
Growth |
|
| 1980 |
517.1 |
2,862.5 |
|
18.07 |
590.9 |
114.27 |
(73.8) |
|
(712) |
24.87 |
|
|
(2.58) |
224.438 |
12,754 |
|
| 1981 |
599.3 |
3,211.0 |
12.17 |
18.66 |
678.2 |
113.17 |
(78.9) |
|
(789) |
24.58 |
Reagan |
(78) |
|
|
(2.46) |
227.231 |
14,131 |
1.1080 |
|
| 1982 |
617.8 |
3,345.0 |
4.17 |
18.47 |
745.7 |
120.71 |
(127.9) |
|
(925) |
27.64 |
Reagan |
(135) |
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|
(3.82) |
230.024 |
14,542 |
1.0291 |
|
| 1983 |
600.6 |
3,638.1 |
8.76 |
16.51 |
808.4 |
134.61 |
(207.8) |
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(1,137) |
31.26 |
Reagan |
(213) |
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(5.71) |
232.817 |
15,626 |
1.0746 |
|
| 1984 |
666.4 |
4,040.7 |
11.07 |
16.49 |
851.8 |
127.81 |
(185.4) |
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(1,307) |
32.35 |
Reagan |
(170) |
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(4.59) |
235.610 |
17,150 |
1.0975 |
|
| 1985 |
734.0 |
4,346.7 |
7.57 |
16.89 |
946.3 |
128.92 |
(212.3) |
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(1,507) |
34.68 |
Reagan |
(200) |
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(4.88) |
238.404 |
18,233 |
1.0631 |
|
| 1986 |
769.2 |
4,590.2 |
5.60 |
16.76 |
990.4 |
128.76 |
(221.2) |
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(1,741) |
37.92 |
Reagan |
(233) |
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(4.82) |
241.197 |
19,031 |
1.0438 |
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| 1987 |
854.3 |
4,870.2 |
6.10 |
17.54 |
1,004.0 |
117.52 |
(149.7) |
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(1,890) |
38.80 |
Reagan |
(149) |
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(3.07) |
243.990 |
19,961 |
1.0489 |
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| 1988 |
909.2 |
5,252.6 |
7.85 |
17.31 |
1,064.4 |
117.07 |
(155.2) |
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(2,052) |
39.06 |
Reagan |
(162) |
(1,340) |
(167) |
(2.95) |
246.783 |
21,284 |
1.0663 |
|
| 1989 |
991.1 |
5,657.7 |
7.71 |
17.52 |
1,143.7 |
115.40 |
(152.6) |
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(2,191) |
38.72 |
G H Bush |
(139) |
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(2.70) |
249.576 |
22,669 |
1.0651 |
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| 1990 |
1,032.0 |
5,979.6 |
5.69 |
17.26 |
1,253.0 |
121.42 |
(221.0) |
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(2,412) |
40.33 |
G H Bush |
(221) |
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(3.70) |
252.369 |
23,694 |
1.0452 |
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| 1991 |
1,055.0 |
6,174.0 |
3.25 |
17.09 |
1,324.2 |
125.52 |
(269.2) |
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(2,689) |
43.55 |
G H Bush |
(277) |
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(4.36) |
255.162 |
24,196 |
1.0212 |
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| 1992 |
1,091.2 |
6,539.3 |
5.92 |
16.69 |
1,381.5 |
126.60 |
(290.3) |
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(3,000) |
45.87 |
G H Bush |
(311) |
(948) |
(237) |
(4.44) |
257.955 |
25,351 |
1.0477 |
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| 1993 |
1,154.3 |
6,878.7 |
5.19 |
16.78 |
1,409.4 |
122.10 |
(255.1) |
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(3,248) |
47.22 |
Clinton |
(249) |
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(3.71) |
260.748 |
26,381 |
1.0406 |
|
| 1994 |
1,258.6 |
7,308.8 |
6.25 |
17.22 |
1,461.8 |
116.15 |
(203.2) |
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(3,433) |
46.97 |
Clinton |
(185) |
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(2.78) |
263.541 |
27,733 |
1.0513 |
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| 1995 |
1,351.8 |
7,664.1 |
4.86 |
17.64 |
1,515.7 |
112.12 |
(163.9) |
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(3,604) |
47.03 |
Clinton |
(171) |
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(2.14) |
266.335 |
28,776 |
1.0376 |
|
| 1996 |
1,453.1 |
8,100.2 |
5.69 |
17.94 |
1,560.5 |
107.39 |
(107.4) |
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(3,734) |
46.10 |
Clinton |
(130) |
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(1.33) |
269.128 |
30,098 |
1.0459 |
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| 1997 |
1,579.2 |
8,608.5 |
6.28 |
18.35 |
1,601.1 |
101.38 |
(21.9) |
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(3,772) |
43.82 |
Clinton |
(38) |
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(0.25) |
271.921 |
31,658 |
1.0518 |
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| 1998 |
1,721.7 |
9,089.2 |
5.58 |
18.94 |
1,652.5 |
95.98 |
69.2 |
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(3,721) |
40.94 |
Clinton |
51 |
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0.76 |
274.714 |
33,086 |
1.0451 |
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| 1999 |
1,827.5 |
9,660.6 |
6.29 |
18.92 |
1,701.8 |
93.12 |
125.7 |
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(3,632) |
37.60 |
Clinton |
89 |
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|
1.30 |
277.507 |
34,812 |
1.0522 |
|
| 2000 |
2,025.2 |
10,284.8 |
6.46 |
19.69 |
1,789.0 |
88.34 |
236.2 |
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(3,410) |
33.15 |
Clinton |
223 |
(410) |
(51) |
2.30 |
280.300 |
36,692 |
1.0540 |
|
| 2001 |
1,991.1 |
10,621.8 |
3.28 |
18.75 |
1,862.8 |
93.55 |
128.3 |
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(3,320) |
31.25 |
G W Bush |
90 |
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|
1.21 |
283.093 |
37,521 |
1.0226 |
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| 2002 |
1,853.1 |
10,977.5 |
3.35 |
16.88 |
2,010.9 |
108.52 |
(157.8) |
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(3,540) |
32.25 |
G W Bush |
(221) |
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(1.44) |
285.886 |
38,398 |
1.0234 |
|
| 2003 |
1,782.3 |
11,510.7 |
4.86 |
15.48 |
2,159.9 |
121.19 |
(377.6) |
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(3,913) |
34.00 |
G W Bush |
(373) |
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(3.28) |
288.679 |
39,874 |
1.0384 |
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| 2004 |
1,880.1 |
12,274.9 |
6.64 |
15.32 |
2,292.8 |
121.95 |
(412.7) |
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(4,296) |
34.99 |
G W Bush |
(382) |
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(3.36) |
291.472 |
42,113 |
1.0562 |
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| 2005 |
2,153.6 |
13,093.7 |
6.67 |
16.45 |
2,472.0 |
114.78 |
(318.4) |
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(4,592) |
35.07 |
G W Bush |
(297) |
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(2.43) |
294.266 |
44,496 |
1.0566 |
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| 2006 |
2,406.9 |
13,855.9 |
5.82 |
17.37 |
2,655.1 |
110.31 |
(248.2) |
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(4,829) |
34.85 |
G W Bush |
(237) |
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(1.79) |
297.059 |
46,644 |
1.0483 |
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| 2007 |
2,568.0 |
14,477.6 |
4.49 |
17.74 |
2,728.7 |
106.26 |
(160.7) |
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(5,035) |
34.78 |
G W Bush |
(206) |
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(1.11) |
299.852 |
48,283 |
1.0351 |
|
| 2008 |
2,524.0 |
14,718.6 |
1.66 |
17.15 |
2,982.5 |
118.17 |
(458.5) |
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(5,803) |
39.43 |
G W Bush |
(768) |
(2,393) |
(299) |
(3.12) |
302.645 |
48,633 |
1.0073 |
|
| 2009 |
2,105.0 |
14,418.7 |
(2.04) |
14.60 |
3,517.7 |
167.11 |
(1,412.7) |
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(7,545) |
52.33 |
Obama |
(1,742) |
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(9.80) |
305.438 |
47,207 |
0.9707 |
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| 2010 |
2,162.7 |
14,964.4 |
3.78 |
14.45 |
3,457.1 |
159.85 |
(1,294.4) |
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(9,019) |
60.27 |
Obama |
(1,474) |
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(8.65) |
308.231 |
48,549 |
1.0284 |
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| 2011 |
2,303.5 |
15,517.9 |
3.70 |
14.84 |
3,603.1 |
156.42 |
(1,299.6) |
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(10,128) |
65.27 |
Obama |
(1,109) |
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|
(8.37) |
311.024 |
49,893 |
1.0277 |
|
| 2012 |
2,450.0 |
16,155.3 |
4.11 |
15.17 |
3,537.0 |
144.37 |
(1,087.0) |
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(11,281) |
69.83 |
Obama |
(1,153) |
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(6.73) |
313.817 |
51,480 |
1.0318 |
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| 2013 |
2,775.1 |
16,663.2 |
3.14 |
16.65 |
3,454.6 |
124.49 |
(679.5) |
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(11,983) |
71.91 |
Obama |
(702) |
good |
|
(4.08) |
316.610 |
52,630 |
1.0223 |
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| 2014 |
3,021.5 |
17,348.1 |
4.11 |
17.42 |
3,506.1 |
116.04 |
(484.6) |
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(12,780) |
73.67 |
Obama |
(797) |
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(2.79) |
319.403 |
54,314 |
1.0320 |
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| 2015 |
3,249.9 |
17,947.0 |
3.45 |
18.11 |
3,688.3 |
113.49 |
(438.4) |
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(13,117) |
73.09 |
Obama |
(337) |
good |
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(2.44) |
322.197 |
55,702 |
1.0256 |
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| 2016 |
3,267.8 |
18,395.7 |
2.50 |
18.21 |
3,087.4 |
94.48 |
180.4 |
(394) |
(13,330) |
72.46 |
Obama |
A positive balance in
2016 |
0.98 |
324.990 |
56,604 |
1.0162 |
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| 2017 |
3,367.9 |
18,855.6 |
2.50 |
18.31 |
3,104.5 |
92.18 |
263.5 |
(400) |
(13,466) |
71.42 |
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is the best Obama can
do. |
1.40 |
327.783 |
57,525 |
1.0163 |
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| 2018 |
3,471.0 |
19,327.0 |
2.50 |
18.41 |
3,199.5 |
92.18 |
271.5 |
(404) |
(13,599) |
70.36 |
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1.40 |
330.576 |
58,465 |
1.0163 |
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| 2019 |
3,577.1 |
19,810.1 |
2.50 |
18.51 |
3,297.4 |
92.18 |
279.7 |
(408) |
(13,727) |
69.29 |
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1.41 |
333.369 |
59,424 |
1.0164 |
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| 2020 |
3,686.3 |
20,305.4 |
2.50 |
18.61 |
3,398.2 |
92.18 |
288.1 |
(412) |
(13,851) |
68.21 |
|
1.42 |
336.162 |
60,404 |
1.0165 |
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| 2021 |
3,798.8 |
20,813.0 |
2.50 |
18.71 |
3,502.0 |
92.19 |
296.8 |
(416) |
(13,969) |
67.12 |
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1.43 |
338.955 |
61,403 |
1.0166 |
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| 2022 |
3,914.6 |
21,333.3 |
2.50 |
18.81 |
3,608.9 |
92.19 |
305.7 |
(419) |
(14,083) |
66.01 |
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1.43 |
341.748 |
62,424 |
1.0166 |
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| 2023 |
4,033.8 |
21,866.7 |
2.50 |
18.91 |
3,718.8 |
92.19 |
314.9 |
(422) |
(14,190) |
64.90 |
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1.44 |
344.541 |
63,466 |
1.0167 |
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| 2024 |
4,156.5 |
22,413.3 |
2.50 |
19.01 |
3,832.1 |
92.20 |
324.4 |
(426) |
(14,292) |
63.76 |
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1.45 |
347.334 |
64,530 |
1.0168 |
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| 2025 |
4,282.8 |
22,973.7 |
2.50 |
19.11 |
3,948.7 |
92.20 |
334.1 |
(429) |
(14,386) |
62.62 |
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|
1.45 |
350.128 |
65,615 |
1.0168 |
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| 2026 |
4,412.9 |
23,548.0 |
2.50 |
19.21 |
4,068.7 |
92.20 |
344.2 |
(432) |
(14,474) |
61.46 |
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|
|
1.46 |
352.921 |
66,723 |
1.0169 |
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| 2027 |
4,546.7 |
24,136.7 |
2.50 |
19.31 |
4,192.2 |
92.20 |
354.5 |
(434) |
(14,553) |
60.30 |
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|
|
1.47 |
355.714 |
67,854 |
1.0170 |
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| 2028 |
4,684.5 |
24,740.1 |
2.50 |
19.41 |
4,319.4 |
92.21 |
365.1 |
(437) |
(14,625) |
59.11 |
|
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|
|
1.48 |
358.507 |
69,009 |
1.0170 |
|
| 2029 |
4,826.4 |
25,358.6 |
2.50 |
19.51 |
4,450.3 |
92.21 |
376.1 |
(439) |
(14,688) |
57.92 |
|
|
|
|
1.48 |
361.300 |
70,187 |
1.0171 |
|
| 2030 |
4,972.4 |
25,992.6 |
2.50 |
19.61 |
4,585.1 |
92.21 |
387.3 |
(441) |
(14,741) |
56.71 |
|
|
|
|
1.49 |
364.093 |
71,390 |
1.0171 |
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| Average |
|
17.66 |
(Bx0.95) |
111.57 |
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|
|
| Std
Dev |
|
1.35 |
|
19.14 |
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|
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| Std
Dev, % of mean |
|
7.66 |
|
17.16 |
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| Ratio
of SD's, exp/income: |
1.00 |
|
2.24 |
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| Year |
Federal |
US |
GDP |
Federal |
Federal |
Federal |
Annual |
Estimated |
Total |
Debt/GDP |
President |
New Debt |
Total |
New Debt |
Annual |
Linear |
GDP/c |
GDP/c |
|
|
Income |
GDP |
Growth |
Income |
Expenses |
Expenses |
Balance |
interest |
Debt |
% |
|
$Billions |
New Debt |
per year |
Balance |
Population |
$/pers/yr |
Growth |
|
|
$Billions |
$Billions |
%/yr |
% of GDP |
$Billions |
% of Income |
to Debt |
at 3% |
$Billions |
|
|
|
$Billions |
$Billions |
% of GDP |
millions |
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|
$Billions |
$Billions |
|
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|
| 1. Business and education need
to help more to create and save jobs for average people. |
UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm |
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| 2. Even if revenue is 19.1% of GDP, it cannot balance big changes
in the other 80.9%! |
US_jobs.htm |
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| 3. I have assumed a
2.5% increase in GDP per year which is consistant with past growth in federal
revenue, but optimistic in the longterm. |
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| 4. A more rational
allocation of federal revenue: |
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2014 |
2014 |
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Life |
Pool |
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Revenue |
Pop. |
2014 |
Exp. |
at |
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|
Program |
% |
$Billions |
Millions |
$/pers/yr |
yrs. |
Birth |
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Defense and International Affairs |
20 |
604.30 |
319.403 |
1,891.96 |
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Infrastructure and Education |
20 |
604.30 |
319.403 |
1,891.96 |
|
|
The link below describes
a way to avoid the problems of Detroit and Illinois. |
|
|
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Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid |
40 |
1,208.60 |
319.403 |
3,783.93 |
78 |
295,147 |
US_Benefit_Pool.htm |
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Debt Reduction and Interest |
20 |
604.30 |
319.403 |
1,891.96 |
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Totals |
100 |
3,021.50 |
319.403 |
9,459.82 |
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| CBO
Estimates Table 1-1 online 6/8/10: |
|
Actual Data for 2010-12: |
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| Year |
Receipts |
Outlays |
|
Ratio, % |
|
Receipts |
Outlays |
Ratio, % |
|
| 2010 |
2176 |
3545 |
|
162.91 |
|
2,162.7 |
3,457.1 |
159.85 |
|
| 2011 |
2673 |
3668 |
|
137.22 |
|
2,303.5 |
3,603.1 |
156.42 |
|
| 2012 |
2967 |
3609 |
|
121.64 |
|
2,450.0 |
3,537.0 |
144.37 |
|
|
| Notes: |
|
| 1. An
exponential projection might fit these CBO estimates better, but |
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| would ignore the fact that the 2000 and
2007 peaks in receipts were bubbles. |
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| The above CBO estimates of receipts for
2010-2012 parallel the last bubble! |
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| This linear projection is much safer in
the near term. |
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| Exponential growth cannot persist very
long because resources become more expensive. |
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| Undeveloped countries can grow
exponentially at first because of foreign investments. |
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| From before 1776 to 1929, the US
received a lot of investments from Europe. Those days are over. |
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| Money flows to cheaper land, cheaper
resources, and cheaper labor. |
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| Thus, I expect GDP's per capita to
converge over the next 100-200 years. |
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|
| 2. Population estimates from
census data: |
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|
US Estimated Population from Regression |
|
|
|
Linear |
Linear |
Expon. |
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|
|
Population |
Growth |
Population |
|
|
Year |
Census |
Millions |
Rate |
Millions |
exp/linear |
|
|
1980 |
226.546 |
224.438 |
|
225.891 |
1.00647 |
|
|
1981 |
|
227.231 |
1.01244 |
228.281 |
1.00462 |
|
|
1982 |
|
230.024 |
1.01229 |
230.696 |
1.00292 |
|
|
1983 |
|
232.817 |
1.01214 |
233.136 |
1.00137 |
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|
1984 |
|
235.610 |
1.01200 |
235.602 |
0.99996 |
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|
1985 |
|
238.404 |
1.01185 |
238.094 |
0.99870 |
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1986 |
|
241.197 |
1.01172 |
240.613 |
0.99758 |
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1987 |
|
243.990 |
1.01158 |
243.158 |
0.99659 |
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1988 |
|
246.783 |
1.01145 |
245.731 |
0.99574 |
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1989 |
|
249.576 |
1.01132 |
248.330 |
0.99501 |
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|
1990 |
248.710 |
252.369 |
1.01119 |
250.957 |
0.99440 |
|
| If exponential, growth rate =
2.71828^0.0105228 = |
1.01057835 |
or: 1.058%/yr. |
1991 |
|
255.162 |
1.01107 |
253.612 |
0.99392 |
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1992 |
|
257.955 |
1.01095 |
256.294 |
0.99356 |
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1993 |
|
260.748 |
1.01083 |
259.006 |
0.99332 |
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1994 |
|
263.541 |
1.01071 |
261.745 |
0.99319 |
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1995 |
|
266.335 |
1.01060 |
264.514 |
0.99317 |
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1996 |
|
269.128 |
1.01049 |
267.312 |
0.99326 |
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1997 |
|
271.921 |
1.01038 |
270.140 |
0.99345 |
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1998 |
|
274.714 |
1.01027 |
272.998 |
0.99375 |
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1999 |
|
277.507 |
1.01017 |
275.886 |
0.99416 |
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2000 |
281.422 |
280.300 |
1.01006 |
278.804 |
0.99466 |
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2001 |
|
283.093 |
1.00996 |
281.753 |
0.99527 |
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2002 |
|
285.886 |
1.00987 |
284.734 |
0.99597 |
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2003 |
|
288.679 |
1.00977 |
287.746 |
0.99677 |
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2004 |
|
291.472 |
1.00968 |
290.790 |
0.99766 |
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2005 |
|
294.266 |
1.00958 |
293.866 |
0.99864 |
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2006 |
|
297.059 |
1.00949 |
296.974 |
0.99972 |
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2007 |
|
299.852 |
1.00940 |
300.116 |
1.00088 |
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2008 |
|
302.645 |
1.00931 |
303.291 |
1.00213 |
|
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2009 |
|
305.438 |
1.00923 |
306.499 |
1.00347 |
|
|
2010 |
308.746 |
308.231 |
1.00914 |
309.741 |
1.00490 |
|
|
2011 |
|
311.024 |
1.00906 |
313.018 |
1.00641 |
|
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2012 |
|
313.817 |
1.00898 |
316.329 |
1.00800 |
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2013 |
|
316.610 |
1.00890 |
319.675 |
1.00968 |
|
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2014 |
|
319.403 |
1.00882 |
323.057 |
1.01144 |
|
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2015 |
|
322.197 |
1.00874 |
326.474 |
1.01328 |
|
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2016 |
|
324.990 |
1.00867 |
329.928 |
1.01520 |
|
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2017 |
|
327.783 |
1.00859 |
333.418 |
1.01719 |
|
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2018 |
|
330.576 |
1.00852 |
336.945 |
1.01927 |
|
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2019 |
|
333.369 |
1.00845 |
340.509 |
1.02142 |
|
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2020 |
|
336.162 |
1.00838 |
344.111 |
1.02365 |
|
|
2021 |
|
338.955 |
1.00831 |
347.751 |
1.02595 |
|
|
2022 |
|
341.748 |
1.00824 |
351.430 |
1.02833 |
|
|
2023 |
|
344.541 |
1.00817 |
355.148 |
1.03078 |
|
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2024 |
|
347.334 |
1.00811 |
358.905 |
1.03331 |
|
|
2025 |
|
350.128 |
1.00804 |
362.701 |
1.03591 |
|
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2026 |
|
352.921 |
1.00798 |
366.538 |
1.03858 |
|
|
2027 |
|
355.714 |
1.00791 |
370.415 |
1.04133 |
|
|
2028 |
|
358.507 |
1.00785 |
374.334 |
1.04415 |
|
|
2029 |
|
361.300 |
1.00779 |
378.293 |
1.04703 |
|
|
2030 |
|
364.093 |
1.00773 |
382.295 |
1.04999 |
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