US Federal Income and Expenses in current $Billions
 Updated on 4/4/16 using BEA Current-Dollar data of 25 March 2016. 
http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/290-width/images/print-edition/20121215_USC615.png
Entitlements (mainly Medicare, Medicaid, and
Social Security) are the main problem.
The Economist, 12/15-21/12, p 30.
Notes:
1. Federal income in current dollars is from CBO Table F-1. Expenses include increase in debt (no games).
2. US GDP is also in current dollars not adjusted for inflation. USstats.htm
3. National Debt figures for past years are from: USdebt.htm
      In 1946, the debt was 121.2% of GDP, but had been reduced to 87.6% of GDP by 1950.
4. The easy way to balance the federal budget is to allocate 16% of projected revenue
      to each of 5 programs (Defense, Other Discretionary, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid)
      and use the last 20% to pay net interest and reduce debt since (5*16+20) = 100. CBO_F1_F9.htm
      The G20 on 6/27/10 agreed to reduce deficits by 50% by 2013, an 8-year transition for the USA.
5. If Congress will not balance the budget, then the Whitehouse, Treasury, and Federal Reserve should
      limit expenditures to projected revenue using uniform percentage reductions.
6. If the voters and Congress want to spend more, Congress should raise taxes. Excessive stimulation under G. W. Bush and Obama
Annual Estimated
Federal US GDP Federal Federal Federal Balance interest Public Total New Debt Annual Linear
Income GDP Growth Income Expenses Expenses to Debt at 3% Debt Debt/GDP New Debt New Debt per year Balance Population GDP/c GDP/c
Year $Billions $Billions %/yr % of GDP $Billions % of Income $Billions $Billions $Billions % President $Billions $Billions $Billions % of GDP millions $/pers/yr Growth
1980 517.1 2,862.5 18.07 590.9 114.27 (73.8) (712) 24.87 (2.58) 224.438 12,754
1981 599.3 3,211.0 12.17 18.66 678.2 113.17 (78.9) (789) 24.58 Reagan (78) (2.46) 227.231 14,131 1.1080
1982 617.8 3,345.0 4.17 18.47 745.7 120.71 (127.9) (925) 27.64 Reagan (135) (3.82) 230.024 14,542 1.0291
1983 600.6 3,638.1 8.76 16.51 808.4 134.61 (207.8) (1,137) 31.26 Reagan (213) (5.71) 232.817 15,626 1.0746
1984 666.4 4,040.7 11.07 16.49 851.8 127.81 (185.4) (1,307) 32.35 Reagan (170) (4.59) 235.610 17,150 1.0975
1985 734.0 4,346.7 7.57 16.89 946.3 128.92 (212.3) (1,507) 34.68 Reagan (200) (4.88) 238.404 18,233 1.0631
1986 769.2 4,590.2 5.60 16.76 990.4 128.76 (221.2) (1,741) 37.92 Reagan (233) (4.82) 241.197 19,031 1.0438
1987 854.3 4,870.2 6.10 17.54 1,004.0 117.52 (149.7) (1,890) 38.80 Reagan (149) (3.07) 243.990 19,961 1.0489
1988 909.2 5,252.6 7.85 17.31 1,064.4 117.07 (155.2) (2,052) 39.06 Reagan (162) (1,340) (167) (2.95) 246.783 21,284 1.0663
1989 991.1 5,657.7 7.71 17.52 1,143.7 115.40 (152.6) (2,191) 38.72 G H Bush (139) (2.70) 249.576 22,669 1.0651
1990 1,032.0 5,979.6 5.69 17.26 1,253.0 121.42 (221.0) (2,412) 40.33 G H Bush (221) (3.70) 252.369 23,694 1.0452
1991 1,055.0 6,174.0 3.25 17.09 1,324.2 125.52 (269.2) (2,689) 43.55 G H Bush (277) (4.36) 255.162 24,196 1.0212
1992 1,091.2 6,539.3 5.92 16.69 1,381.5 126.60 (290.3) (3,000) 45.87 G H Bush (311) (948) (237) (4.44) 257.955 25,351 1.0477
1993 1,154.3 6,878.7 5.19 16.78 1,409.4 122.10 (255.1) (3,248) 47.22 Clinton (249) (3.71) 260.748 26,381 1.0406
1994 1,258.6 7,308.8 6.25 17.22 1,461.8 116.15 (203.2) (3,433) 46.97 Clinton (185) (2.78) 263.541 27,733 1.0513
1995 1,351.8 7,664.1 4.86 17.64 1,515.7 112.12 (163.9) (3,604) 47.03 Clinton (171) (2.14) 266.335 28,776 1.0376
1996 1,453.1 8,100.2 5.69 17.94 1,560.5 107.39 (107.4) (3,734) 46.10 Clinton (130) (1.33) 269.128 30,098 1.0459
1997 1,579.2 8,608.5 6.28 18.35 1,601.1 101.38 (21.9) (3,772) 43.82 Clinton (38) (0.25) 271.921 31,658 1.0518
1998 1,721.7 9,089.2 5.58 18.94 1,652.5 95.98 69.2 (3,721) 40.94 Clinton 51 0.76 274.714 33,086 1.0451
1999 1,827.5 9,660.6 6.29 18.92 1,701.8 93.12 125.7 (3,632) 37.60 Clinton 89 1.30 277.507 34,812 1.0522
2000 2,025.2 10,284.8 6.46 19.69 1,789.0 88.34 236.2 (3,410) 33.15 Clinton 223 (410) (51) 2.30 280.300 36,692 1.0540
2001 1,991.1 10,621.8 3.28 18.75 1,862.8 93.55 128.3 (3,320) 31.25 G W Bush 90 1.21 283.093 37,521 1.0226
2002 1,853.1 10,977.5 3.35 16.88 2,010.9 108.52 (157.8) (3,540) 32.25 G W Bush (221) (1.44) 285.886 38,398 1.0234
2003 1,782.3 11,510.7 4.86 15.48 2,159.9 121.19 (377.6) (3,913) 34.00 G W Bush (373) (3.28) 288.679 39,874 1.0384
2004 1,880.1 12,274.9 6.64 15.32 2,292.8 121.95 (412.7) (4,296) 34.99 G W Bush (382) (3.36) 291.472 42,113 1.0562
2005 2,153.6 13,093.7 6.67 16.45 2,472.0 114.78 (318.4) (4,592) 35.07 G W Bush (297) (2.43) 294.266 44,496 1.0566
2006 2,406.9 13,855.9 5.82 17.37 2,655.1 110.31 (248.2) (4,829) 34.85 G W Bush (237) (1.79) 297.059 46,644 1.0483
2007 2,568.0 14,477.6 4.49 17.74 2,728.7 106.26 (160.7) (5,035) 34.78 G W Bush (206) (1.11) 299.852 48,283 1.0351
2008 2,524.0 14,718.6 1.66 17.15 2,982.5 118.17 (458.5) (5,803) 39.43 G W Bush (768) (2,393) (299) (3.12) 302.645 48,633 1.0073
2009 2,105.0 14,418.7 (2.04) 14.60 3,517.7 167.11 (1,412.7) (7,545) 52.33 Obama (1,742) (9.80) 305.438 47,207 0.9707
2010 2,162.7 14,964.4 3.78 14.45 3,457.1 159.85 (1,294.4) (9,019) 60.27 Obama (1,474) (8.65) 308.231 48,549 1.0284
2011 2,303.5 15,517.9 3.70 14.84 3,603.1 156.42 (1,299.6) (10,128) 65.27 Obama (1,109) (8.37) 311.024 49,893 1.0277
2012 2,450.0 16,155.3 4.11 15.17 3,537.0 144.37 (1,087.0) (11,281) 69.83 Obama (1,153) (6.73) 313.817 51,480 1.0318
2013 2,775.1 16,663.2 3.14 16.65 3,454.6 124.49 (679.5) (11,983) 71.91 Obama (702) good (4.08) 316.610 52,630 1.0223
2014 3,021.5 17,348.1 4.11 17.42 3,506.1 116.04 (484.6) (12,780) 73.67 Obama (797) (2.79) 319.403 54,314 1.0320
2015 3,249.9 17,947.0 3.45 18.11 3,688.3 113.49 (438.4) (13,117) 73.09 Obama (337) good (2.44) 322.197 55,702 1.0256
2016 3,267.8 18,395.7 2.50 18.21 3,087.4 94.48 180.4 (394) (13,330) 72.46 Obama   A positive balance in 2016 0.98 324.990 56,604 1.0162
2017 3,367.9 18,855.6 2.50 18.31 3,104.5 92.18 263.5 (400) (13,466) 71.42   is the best Obama can do. 1.40 327.783 57,525 1.0163
2018 3,471.0 19,327.0 2.50 18.41 3,199.5 92.18 271.5 (404) (13,599) 70.36 1.40 330.576 58,465 1.0163
2019 3,577.1 19,810.1 2.50 18.51 3,297.4 92.18 279.7 (408) (13,727) 69.29 1.41 333.369 59,424 1.0164
2020 3,686.3 20,305.4 2.50 18.61 3,398.2 92.18 288.1 (412) (13,851) 68.21 1.42 336.162 60,404 1.0165
2021 3,798.8 20,813.0 2.50 18.71 3,502.0 92.19 296.8 (416) (13,969) 67.12 1.43 338.955 61,403 1.0166
2022 3,914.6 21,333.3 2.50 18.81 3,608.9 92.19 305.7 (419) (14,083) 66.01 1.43 341.748 62,424 1.0166
2023 4,033.8 21,866.7 2.50 18.91 3,718.8 92.19 314.9 (422) (14,190) 64.90 1.44 344.541 63,466 1.0167
2024 4,156.5 22,413.3 2.50 19.01 3,832.1 92.20 324.4 (426) (14,292) 63.76 1.45 347.334 64,530 1.0168
2025 4,282.8 22,973.7 2.50 19.11 3,948.7 92.20 334.1 (429) (14,386) 62.62 1.45 350.128 65,615 1.0168
2026 4,412.9 23,548.0 2.50 19.21 4,068.7 92.20 344.2 (432) (14,474) 61.46 1.46 352.921 66,723 1.0169
2027 4,546.7 24,136.7 2.50 19.31 4,192.2 92.20 354.5 (434) (14,553) 60.30 1.47 355.714 67,854 1.0170
2028 4,684.5 24,740.1 2.50 19.41 4,319.4 92.21 365.1 (437) (14,625) 59.11 1.48 358.507 69,009 1.0170
2029 4,826.4 25,358.6 2.50 19.51 4,450.3 92.21 376.1 (439) (14,688) 57.92 1.48 361.300 70,187 1.0171
2030 4,972.4 25,992.6 2.50 19.61 4,585.1 92.21 387.3 (441) (14,741) 56.71 1.49 364.093 71,390 1.0171
Average 17.66 (Bx0.95) 111.57
Std Dev 1.35 19.14
Std Dev, % of mean 7.66 17.16
Ratio of SD's, exp/income: 1.00 2.24
Year Federal US GDP Federal Federal Federal Annual Estimated Total Debt/GDP President New Debt Total New Debt Annual Linear GDP/c GDP/c
Income GDP Growth Income Expenses Expenses Balance interest Debt % $Billions New Debt per year Balance Population $/pers/yr Growth
$Billions $Billions %/yr % of GDP $Billions % of Income to Debt at 3% $Billions $Billions $Billions % of GDP millions
$Billions $Billions
1. Business and education need to help more to create and save jobs for average people. UN_POP_GDP_2012.htm
2. Even if revenue is 19.1% of GDP, it cannot balance big changes in the other 80.9%! US_jobs.htm
3. I have assumed a 2.5% increase in GDP per year which is consistant with past growth in federal revenue, but optimistic in the longterm.
4. A more rational allocation of federal revenue:
2014 2014 Life Pool
Revenue Pop. 2014 Exp. at 
Program % $Billions Millions $/pers/yr yrs. Birth
Defense and International Affairs 20 604.30 319.403 1,891.96
Infrastructure and Education 20 604.30 319.403 1,891.96 The link below describes a way to avoid the problems of Detroit and Illinois.
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid 40 1,208.60 319.403 3,783.93 78 295,147 US_Benefit_Pool.htm
Debt Reduction and Interest 20 604.30 319.403 1,891.96
Totals 100 3,021.50 319.403 9,459.82
CBO Estimates Table 1-1 online 6/8/10: Actual Data for 2010-12:
Year Receipts Outlays Ratio, % Receipts Outlays Ratio, %
2010 2176 3545 162.91 2,162.7 3,457.1 159.85
2011 2673 3668 137.22 2,303.5 3,603.1 156.42
2012 2967 3609 121.64 2,450.0 3,537.0 144.37
Notes: 
1. An exponential projection might fit these CBO estimates better, but
      would ignore the fact that the 2000 and 2007 peaks in receipts were bubbles.
      The above CBO estimates of receipts for 2010-2012 parallel the last bubble!
      This linear projection is much safer in the near term.
      Exponential growth cannot persist very long because resources become more expensive.
      Undeveloped countries can grow exponentially at first because of foreign investments.
      From before 1776 to 1929, the US received a lot of investments from Europe. Those days are over.
      Money flows to cheaper land, cheaper resources, and cheaper labor.
      Thus, I expect GDP's per capita to converge over the next 100-200 years.
2. Population estimates from census data:
US Estimated Population from Regression
Linear Linear Expon.
Population Growth Population
Year Census Millions Rate Millions exp/linear
1980 226.546 224.438 225.891 1.00647
1981 227.231 1.01244 228.281 1.00462
1982 230.024 1.01229 230.696 1.00292
1983 232.817 1.01214 233.136 1.00137
1984 235.610 1.01200 235.602 0.99996
1985 238.404 1.01185 238.094 0.99870
1986 241.197 1.01172 240.613 0.99758
1987 243.990 1.01158 243.158 0.99659
1988 246.783 1.01145 245.731 0.99574
1989 249.576 1.01132 248.330 0.99501
1990 248.710 252.369 1.01119 250.957 0.99440
If exponential, growth rate = 2.71828^0.0105228 = 1.01057835 or: 1.058%/yr. 1991 255.162 1.01107 253.612 0.99392
1992 257.955 1.01095 256.294 0.99356
1993 260.748 1.01083 259.006 0.99332
1994 263.541 1.01071 261.745 0.99319
1995 266.335 1.01060 264.514 0.99317
1996 269.128 1.01049 267.312 0.99326
1997 271.921 1.01038 270.140 0.99345
1998 274.714 1.01027 272.998 0.99375
1999 277.507 1.01017 275.886 0.99416
2000 281.422 280.300 1.01006 278.804 0.99466
2001 283.093 1.00996 281.753 0.99527
2002 285.886 1.00987 284.734 0.99597
2003 288.679 1.00977 287.746 0.99677
2004 291.472 1.00968 290.790 0.99766
2005 294.266 1.00958 293.866 0.99864
2006 297.059 1.00949 296.974 0.99972
2007 299.852 1.00940 300.116 1.00088
2008 302.645 1.00931 303.291 1.00213
2009 305.438 1.00923 306.499 1.00347
2010 308.746 308.231 1.00914 309.741 1.00490
2011 311.024 1.00906 313.018 1.00641
2012 313.817 1.00898 316.329 1.00800
2013 316.610 1.00890 319.675 1.00968
2014 319.403 1.00882 323.057 1.01144
2015 322.197 1.00874 326.474 1.01328
2016 324.990 1.00867 329.928 1.01520
2017 327.783 1.00859 333.418 1.01719
2018 330.576 1.00852 336.945 1.01927
2019 333.369 1.00845 340.509 1.02142
2020 336.162 1.00838 344.111 1.02365
2021 338.955 1.00831 347.751 1.02595
2022 341.748 1.00824 351.430 1.02833
2023 344.541 1.00817 355.148 1.03078
2024 347.334 1.00811 358.905 1.03331
2025 350.128 1.00804 362.701 1.03591
2026 352.921 1.00798 366.538 1.03858
2027 355.714 1.00791 370.415 1.04133
2028 358.507 1.00785 374.334 1.04415
2029 361.300 1.00779 378.293 1.04703
2030 364.093 1.00773 382.295 1.04999