US Energy Model in Quadrillion Btu
Revised: 3/21/14 Model
Proven To Res. Quad Life Year Quad Quad
US Energy Reserves 2003: Res. Quad Quad 2003 yrs Ends  Used Left
Oil, billions of barrels 21.371 5.80 124 14.8 8 2015 109 15
Gas, trillions of cubic feet 192.513 1.04 199 18.9 11 2018 160 39
Coal, billions of short tons 267.312 20.50 5,480 36.5 150 2157 3,443 2,037
Uranium, millions of pounds 890 2.97 2,643 17.3 153 2160 2,548 96
Non-renewables, quad 8,447 87.5 97 2100 6,259 2,187
2003 Prod Used
US % 2003 2003 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500
Oil imports 24.2 12.1 0.0
Gas imports 4.1 2.1 0.0
Oil, US 21.2 14.8 14.8 2.0 0.0
Gas, US 27.1 18.9 18.9 3.0 0.0
Coal 32.1 22.4 22.4 34.3 29.9 6.3 0.0
Uranium Fission 11.5 8.0 8.0 17.3 17.3 17.3 0.0
Non-renewables 64.1 92.4
Solar, etc. 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.6 25.1 37.5 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Geothermal, etc. 8.0 5.6 5.6 16.7 27.8 38.9 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Quad Btu, sum 100.0 69.8 98.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Quad, fossil fuels 56.1 84.4 53.4 29.9 6.3 0.0
Fossil fuels, % 80.4 86.0 53.4 29.9 6.3 0.0
Quad Btu used 69.8 98.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Efficiency, $trillions/Quad 0.105 0.140 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.175
GDP, $trillions 10.3 14.0 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5
Pop, billions 0.291 0.377 0.467 0.546 0.604 0.635 0.649 0.660 0.659 0.659 0.659
GDP/c, $1000's/person/yr 35.4 37.1 37.5 32.1 29.0 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6
Notes:
1. US proven reserves of fossil fuels are from: Fossil Fuel Reserves.htm
2. Production and use data for 2003 are from:  EIA US use.htm
3. Total energy used is kept constant by 2050 to make transitions to alternatives.
4. Fission is uranium fission in nuclear reactors.
5. Solar, etc. is solar, wind, tidal, and Earth-based nuclear fusion if that proves practical.
6. Geothermal, etc. is geothermal, wastes, synfuels from plants, etc.
7. Estimation of the lifetime of US uranium reserves at current rate of use:
       a. DOE/EIA estimates US reserves of U3O8 to be 890 million pounds.
       b. Assume U3O8 shipments are equal to current consumption per year.
       c. U3O8 shipments from 2002 to 2006 averaged 2.68 million pounds per year.
       d. Nuclear generation in 2003 was 7.96 quadrillion Btu. EIA US use.htm
8. Life equals estimated lifetime of resource at the selected production level.
9. Year Ends is the last year if 2008 were the first year.
10. The US population grew at a rate of 0.978%/year (1.00978) in 2005. US economy.htm
11. GDP and GDP/Quad are in constant US$ for the year 2000.
12. US population estimates are from: US_model.htm
13. I have assumed that energy efficiency of the US GDP stabilizes in 2100.
14. GDP/capita was raised about (24.2+4.1)/69.8 = 0.405, or 40.5%, by imports in 2003.
What this plan would accomplish:
1. Oil and gas consumption would be cut in half by 2050.
2. Nuclear fission would be increased to minimize consumption of coal.
3. Solar, geothermal, etc. would be increased linearly up to 50 Quad Btu per year in 2200.
4. The balance needed to maintain 100 Quad Btu per year would come from coal.
5. The energy from fossil fuels would decrease from 86% in 2003 to 0% by 2200.
6. The US would be about as efficient as the EU and Japan by 2100.  CIA energy.htm
7. The GDP per capita will drop more if the US population continues to grow at about 1% per year.
8. A GDP per capita of $26,600 per person per year may look very good by 2350.
9. This model clearly relates energy consumption, energy efficiency, GDP, and population.
10. The US could be energy independent by 2100.
Expenses per capita in 2100 and Age Structure at a Stable Age Distribution:
US_2100.htm and US_2100.xls
US Oil and Natural Gas Update 4/1/10:  US Oil and Gas.htm
As the world converts from fossil fuels to electricity, quadrillions of Btu will be replaced by
     terawatt-hours. Since 1 kilowatt hour of electricity equals 3,412 Btu and 1 Quad Btu = 10^15 Btu, then:
1 Quadrillion Btu = 10^15 Btu/3412 = (1,000,000/3412)*10^9 kilowatt hours = 293*10^9 kilowatt hours
1 Terawatt = 10^12 Watts = 10^9 kilowatts.
So, 1 Quad Btu = 293 TWhrs
      Since the US now uses about 100 Quad Btu per year, we use about 100*293, or 29,300 TWhrs per year.
      See this link for US data in TWH: DOE_US_Energy.htm and DOE_US_Energy.xls