Conversion of the USA to Geothermal and Renewable Energy by  about 2200
Modified: 06/7/13
Data year (DOE/EIA) 2007
Quad Btu used  102.676
GDP, $trillion 14.028
Energy efficiency = GDP/Quad used 0.13662
Population, millions 301.737
GDP per capita = $/person/year = 46,491
Energy consumption per person, Btu =  340,283,094
One kilowatt hour in Btu 3,412
Energy/person/year in kwh/year = 99,731
Energy/person/year in MWh/year = 99.73
Total energy in MWh/year = 30,092,614,302
Total energy in TWh/year = 30,093
Future power plants of each type = 2,800
Plant 
Mean
Low High Mean Wholesale Retail Electrical Long Mean
Source mm mm mm cents/kwh cents/kwh Output Term hours Output
All sources in 2007 5.7 8.9 mw/hr Plants /day TWh/yr
Nuclear (retail prices are for 2020) 24 51 37.5 9.5 14.8 500 0 24 0
Coal + CCS 36 60 48.0 12.1 18.9 500 0 24 0
Natural Gas + CCS 56 84 70.0 17.6 27.6 500 0 24 0
Wind onshore per 100x5MW turbines 16 40 28.0 7.1 11.0 500 2,800 8 4,088
Biomass if photosynthetic  32 40 36.0 9.1 14.2 500 2,800 8 4,088
Geothermal 38 42 40.0 10.1 15.7 500 2,800 24 12,264
Wind offshore per 100x5MW turbines 20 71 45.5 11.5 17.9 500 2,800 8 4,088
Solar focused, mirror array 32 79 55.5 14.0 21.8 500 2,800 8 4,088
Solar Photovoltaic, large array 56 119 87.5 22.1 34.5 500 2,800 8 4,088
Solar Photovoltaic, 4kw/hr/house 56 119 87.5 22.1 22.1 0.004 37,717,125 8 441
Total 33,145
Current use 30,093
Safety margin 1.10
US Economy Based on Above Energy Inputs: US Birth and Death Rates
Per 1000 pop. Net
Inputs Year Births Deaths Rate
Energy used in 2007, TWh/year 30,093 1910 30.10 14.70 0.01540
One quadrillion Btu in TWh 293 1950 24.10 9.64 0.01446
Above Energy Generated, Quad Btu/year 103 2000 14.40 8.54 0.00586
Energy Efficiency of GDP, $Trillion/Quad 0.13662 2009 13.50 7.94 0.00556
$Billion/Quad 136.62 2200 12.80 12.80 0.00000
Estimated US GDP, $Billions 14,032 US_model.htm
GDP per capita, $/person/year 46,504
Efficiency Efficiency
Constant of GDP of GDP
US Population Pop Energy Used $Billion Constant $Billion Eff.
US GDP/capita vs. Population Millions Year Incr. Quad Btu GDP/c/yr per Quad GDP/c/yr per Quad Incr.
at constant energy input and efficiency 301.737 2007 102.676 46,491 136.62 46,491 136.62
307.212 2010 102.676 46,900 140.33 46,900 140.33
US_model.htm 377.000 2050 1.23 102.676 37,220 136.66 46,900 172.20 1.23
467.000 2100 1.24 102.676 30,047 136.66 46,900 213.31 1.24
546.000 2150 1.17 102.676 25,700 136.66 46,900 249.40 1.17
604.000 2200 1.11 102.676 23,232 136.66 46,900 275.89 1.11
Constant energy input means energy efficiency of the GDP must increase at the same rate as the population to keep GDP/c fixed.
Notes:
1. National Academy of Sciences (2009) America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation: Summary Edition, pp58-59.
NAS2009a.jpg NAS2009b.jpg
2. CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage
3. The above geothermal estimate is probably for shallow wells, not deep wells near volcanic hot spots (magma chambers).
4. Wholesale prices are from reference (1) for 2020 and retail prices = (8.9/5.7) times NAS mean wholesale price for 2020.
5. Photovoltaic arrays capable of producing 500 MW at a price of $2.43/Watt (or 1000*2.43/(365*12) =  $0.56/kwh) 
       are under construction (Wikipedia).
6. Battery costs versus power plant and transmission costs will determine solar versus wind and geothermal.
7. Half of the houses are assumed to have solar panels and 4 residents.
8. This conversion will be as costly and upsetting as the conversions to agriculture and industry, but we have no good alternatives!