US Population Growth, Energy Use, GDP, and GDP/capita
Assumptions:
1. Net population growth/1000 = births - deaths + migrants
2. Use US population and current GDP estimates at USstats.htm
3. Use US birth and death rates at  USstats.htm
4. In 2003, fossil fuels provided 86% of US energy and  EIA US use.htm
     energy used grew at 1.2% per year.  Thus, it might take EIAuse.htm
     about 86/1.2 = 72 years to achieve energy independence.
5. When populations (n+1) and (n) are known, Net Growth Rate/1000 = ((Pop(n+1)/Pop(n))-1)*1000.
      and estimated Migrants/1000 = Net/1000 - Births/1000 + Deaths/1000.
6. Columns B, C, D, G, H, and J are from  USstats.htm The others are calculated from those.
F=100((G2/G1)-1) E=10F D=E-B+C I=J/H K=1000(J/G)
B C D E F G H I J K L M
EIA Energy
Energy Efficiency
Net  Net Jul 1 Use of GDP Jul 1 Jul 1 GDP/c SP500
Births Deaths Migrants B-D+M B-D+M Pop Quad $Billions/ GDP GDP/ Growth Year
Year /1000 /1000 /1000 /1000 %/yr Millions Btu Quad $Billions Capita rate End
1999 279.328 96.817 95.73 9,268 33,181 1,469.25
2000 14.40 8.540 5.18 11.04 1.104 282.413 98.975 99.19 9,817 34,761 1.04762 1,320.28
2001 14.10 8.485 4.59 10.20 1.020 285.294 96.326 105.14 10,128 35,500 1.02126 1,148.08
2002 13.90 8.473 4.25 9.68 0.968 288.055 97.858 108.75 10,642 36,944 1.04068 879.82
2003 14.10 8.419 3.60 9.28 0.928 290.729 98.209 113.45 11,142 38,324 1.03735 1,111.92
2004 14.00 8.165 3.17 9.01 0.901 293.348 100.351 118.12 11,853 40,406 1.05431 1,211.92
2005 14.00 8.259 3.42 9.16 0.916 296.036 100.691 125.36 12,623 42,640 1.05529 1,248.29
2006 14.20 8.104 3.31 9.40 0.940 298.820 99.873 133.94 13,377 44,766 1.04986 1,418.30
2007 14.30 8.036 3.50 9.76 0.976 301.737 101.296 138.49 14,028 46,491 1.03853 1,468.36
2008 14.00 8.130 4.38 10.25 1.025 304.831 99.292 143.94 14,292 46,885 1.00848 903.25
2009 13.50 7.938 3.14 8.70 0.870 307.483 94.596 147.35 13,939 45,333 0.96689 1,115.10
2010 13.00 7.995 2.45 7.46 0.746 309.776 98.016 152.67 14,964 48,306 1.06559 1,257.64
2011 12.70 7.29 0.729 312.034 97.461 159.22 15,518 49,732 1.02952 1,257.60
2012 12.60 7.09 0.709 314.246 94.946 170.23 16,163 51,434 1.03423 1,430.15
2013 7.06 0.706 316.465 16,768 52,985 1.03016 1,848.36
2014
Means = 298.706 98.193 129.40 12,968 43,179 1.03427 1272.55
Standard deviations = 11.589 1.977 22.67 2322.5 6140.6 0.02350 233.58
Std. Dev./Mean (%) = 3.88 2.01 17.52 17.91 14.22 2.27 18.35
Average rates of growth = 1.0090 0.9985 1.0453 1.0433 1.0340 0.9987 1.0165
Correlations with population = 1.0000 (0.3033) 0.9944 0.9886 0.9806 (0.2354) 0.2554
Correlations with SP500 = 0.2554 0.1747 0.3043 0.3345 0.3506 0.3699 1.0000
Notes:
1. Current dollar GDP is used here and in CIA data.
2. Are population growth and increasing welfare more important than creativity and economic health?
3. Stock indexes are very noisy data sets: INDEXES.htm SP500.htm