Recent Boom-Bust Cycles
Cycle
Years Low High Years
1995 1999 4
7 2002 2007 5
6 2008 2016 8
Cause?
2003. Sornette, Didier; Why Stock Markets Crash. 
   But, I don't recall reading a solution.
A large investor who can start a significant, 
predictable, oscillation has a big advantage!
Merger of commercial and retail banks led to a
huge increase in investments in 1995-1999.
However, the growth rate of GDP/capita is 
declining: UN_POP_GDP_2020.htm
Sound and fury signifying little more than GDP/capita (~2%/yr), inflation (~1.5%/yr), deregulation, and speculation.
The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 was repealed in 1980 to 1999: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act
This was largely responsible for the 26.2 percent growth per year from 1994 to 1999 and the following crashes.
Statistics for 1980-1994: Statistics for 1995 to Present:
Slope(1,1) 0.0470 Slope(1,1) 0.0189
Growth rate 1.1143 Growth rate 1.0446
Growth rate, %/yr. 11.43 Growth rate, %/yr. 4.46
Y Intercept(1,2) 2.030 Y Intercept(1,2) 2.852
SE of slope(2,1) 0.002 SE of slope(2,1) 0.003
SE of intercept(2,2) 0.018 SE of intercept(2,2) 0.088
Fit, r^2(3,1) 0.977 Fit, r^2(3,1) 0.610
Date Date E K
Index Date # x.xx SP500 Log500 ELog500 EstA500 Log500 ELog500 EstB500
1 12/31/80 29,586 1980.00 135.76 2.13277 2.07679 119.34
2 12/31/81 29,951 1981.00 122.55 2.08831 2.12378 132.98
3 12/31/82 30,316 1982.00 140.64 2.14811 2.17076 148.17
4 12/31/83 30,681 1983.00 164.93 2.21730 2.21774 165.10
5 12/31/84 31,047 1984.00 167.24 2.22334 2.26472 183.96
6 12/31/85 31,412 1985.00 211.28 2.32486 2.31171 204.98
7 12/31/86 31,777 1986.00 242.17 2.38412 2.35869 228.40
8 12/31/87 32,142 1987.00 247.08 2.39284 2.40567 254.49
9 12/31/88 32,508 1988.00 277.72 2.44361 2.45266 283.57
10 12/31/89 32,873 1989.00 353.40 2.54827 2.49964 315.97
11 12/31/90 33,238 1990.00 330.22 2.51880 2.54662 352.07
12 12/31/91 33,603 1991.00 417.09 2.62023 2.59361 392.29
13 12/31/92 33,969 1992.00 435.71 2.63920 2.64059 437.11 (SP500/
14 12/31/93 34,334 1993.00 466.45 2.66881 2.68757 487.05 Est.)
15 12/31/94 34,699 1994.00 459.27 2.66207 2.73456 542.70 2.66207 2.87104 743.09 E/K
16 12/31/95 35,064 1995.00 615.93 2.78953 2.78154 604.70 2.78953 2.88998 776.21 0.7935
17 12/31/96 35,430 1996.00 740.74 2.86967 2.82852 673.79 2.86967 2.90892 810.81 0.9136
18 12/31/97 35,795 1997.00 970.43 2.98696 2.87551 750.77 2.98696 2.92786 846.95 1.1458
19 12/31/98 36,160 1998.00 1,229.23 3.08963 2.92249 836.55 3.08963 2.94680 884.71 1.3894
20 12/31/99 36,525 1999.00 1,469.25 3.16710 2.96947 932.12 3.16710 2.96574 924.14 1.5899
21 12/31/00 36,891 2000.00 1,320.28 3.12067 3.01646 1,038.62 3.12067 2.98468 965.34 1.3677
22 12/31/01 37,256 2001.00 1,148.08 3.05997 3.06344 1,157.28 3.05997 3.00362 1,008.36 1.1386
23 12/31/02 37,621 2002.00 879.82 2.94439 3.11042 1,289.50 2.94439 3.02256 1,053.31 0.8353
24 12/31/03 37,986 2003.00 1,111.92 3.04607 3.15741 1,436.83 3.04607 3.04150 1,100.26 1.0106
25 12/31/04 38,352 2004.00 1,211.92 3.08347 3.20439 1,600.99 3.08347 3.06044 1,149.31 1.0545
26 12/31/05 38,717 2005.00 1,248.29 3.09632 3.25137 1,783.91 3.09632 3.07938 1,200.54 1.0398
27 12/31/06 39,082 2006.00 1,418.30 3.15177 3.29836 1,987.72 3.15177 3.09832 1,254.05 1.1310
28 12/31/07 39,447 2007.00 1,468.36 3.16683 3.34534 2,214.82 3.16683 3.11725 1,309.95 1.1209
29 12/31/08 39,813 2008.00 903.25 2.95581 3.39232 2,467.87 2.95581 3.13619 1,368.34 0.6601
30 12/31/09 40,178 2009.00 1,115.10 3.04731 3.43931 2,749.83 3.04731 3.15513 1,429.33 0.7802
31 12/31/10 40,543 2010.00 1,257.64 3.09956 3.48629 3,064.00 3.09956 3.17407 1,493.05 0.8423
32 12/31/11 40,908 2011.00 1,257.60 3.09954 3.53327 3,414.07 3.09954 3.19301 1,559.60 0.8064
34 12/31/12 41,274 2012.00 1,430.15 3.15538 3.62724 4,238.76 3.15538 3.23089 1,701.73 0.8404
33 12/31/13 41,639 2013.00 1,848.36 3.26679 3.58026 3,804.13 3.26679 3.21195 1,629.12 1.1346
35 12/31/14 42,004 2014.00 2,058.90 3.31364 3.67422 4,723.04 3.31364 3.24983 1,777.59 1.1583
36 12/31/15 42,369 2015.00 2,075.15 3.31705 3.72120 5,262.65 3.31705 3.26877 1,856.82 1.1176
37 09/30/16 42,643 2015.75 2,168.27 3.33611 3.76819 5,863.92 3.33611 3.28771 1,939.59 1.1179
Log Plot Slope, 1995+ 0.016226
Exponential Growth Rates: Growth rate = 10^slope 1.0381
1980-1994: rate = 10^0.0452 = 10.97  % per year Growth rate, %/yr. 3.81
Y Intercept 2.911750