World Population Model Output
12/9/14
Life Minimum Change Change Stable Pop Max Max Min First Stable Stable
Expect. Births/ Births/ Deaths/ Births/ 2050 Pop Pop GDP/c Stable Pop. GDP/c
Option at birth 1000 1000/yr 1000/yr 1000 Millions Year Millions $US2005 Year Millions $US2005
1 65 7.69 0.153 0.027 15.38 8,883 2068 9,165 6,502 2301 2,992 19,916 slow
2 65 15.38 0.153 0.027 15.38 9,004 2250 15,410 3,867 2250 15,410 3,867 avoid
3 100 10.00 0.153 0.005 10.00 9,078 2249 10,400 5,730 2249 10,400 5,730 avoid
4 100 5.00 0.300 0.005 10.00 7,854 2043 7,917 7,527 2282 2,856 20,864 ok
5 100 6.00 0.300 0.005 10.00 7,854 2043 7,917 7,527 2332 2,895 20,582 slow
6 100 7.00 0.300 0.005 10.00 7,854 2043 7,917 7,527 2416 2,938 20,283 slow
7 100 8.00 0.300 0.005 10.00 7,873 2043 7,917 7,527 2593 2,957 20,149 slow
8 100 10.00 0.300 0.005 10.00 7,989 2249 8,825 6,753 2249 8,825 6,753 avoid
9 100 5.00 0.600 0.005 10.00 6,523 2024 7,130 8,358 2249 2,915 20,446 ok
10 100 6.00 0.600 0.005 10.00 6,656 2024 7,130 8,358 2283 2,939 20,273 ok
11 100 7.00 0.600 0.005 10.00 6,803 2024 7,130 8,358 2363 2,961 20,122 slow
12 100 8.00 0.600 0.005 10.00 6,964 2024 7,130 8,358 2528 2,972 20,053 slow
13 100 8.50 0.600 0.005 10.00 7,051 2024 7,130 8,358 2694 2,972 20,048 slow
14 100 10.00 0.600 0.005 10.00 7,335 2249 8,102 7,355 2249 8,102 7,355 avoid
Notes:
1. In options 1&2, life expectancy at birth is assumed to stay at 65 years and 1 birth/woman = 7.69/1000. CIA births.htm
2. The UN population projection for 2050 is 9,076 million humans. Options 2 and 3 are most similar.
3. A stable population at $20,000/capita will be reached after 2300 if the minimum birth rate is too close to 10. 
4. A minimum birth rate of 10 will yield a population which never decreases and a stable GDP/capita much lower than
    $20,000/capita.
5. A stable population of 3 billion will require more energy than we use today and sources which will last hundreds of years.
6. Oil, natural gas, and coal may get us to about 2100. Nuclear fission might get us a few hundred years more, but in the
     long term, we will need nuclear fusion, sunlight, wind, etc.
7. It seems reckless to use more energy in the near term than we know how to obtain in the future.
     It is more sensible to reach and maintain a balance between population and energy consumption.