Immigration into the US – Proposed Options

4/7/06

 

Facts:

            1.  Various sources estimate that there are 10 to 12 million illegal immigrants currently in the United States.

 

            2.  The CIA (CIA migration.htm) estimates that the net migration rate into the US in 2005 was 3.31 per 1000 population per year, or 0.00331 times 295,734,134 = 978,880 immigrants per year in 2005. 

 

            3.  The CDC (USstats.htm) gives a birth rate of 13.9/1000 and a death rate of 8.47/1000 in 2002 for US citizens only combined with the US net population growth rate of 10.1/1000 which gives an upper limit for recorded non-citizen births and immigrants as 13.9 – 8.5 + M = 10.1, or M = 10.1 + 8.5 – 13.9 = 4.7/1000 population in 2002, or about 1,389,950 non-citizen births and immigrants in 2005.  These data raise the issue of whether children of non-citizens born in the US should automatically become US citizens.  However, the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution states: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”  It should be possible to discourage irresponsible reproduction by limiting welfare and by deporting irresponsible non-citizens.

 

            3.  The UN estimates (World Population Growth.htm) that the world population will increase from 6.465 billion in 2005 to about 9.076 billion in 2050, or about a 40% increase.  It seems very conservative to assume that the number of potential immigrants might also increase by at least 40% by 2050.

 

 

Proposed Options

 

A.  Overall Policies:

It is very important for Congress to specify the total number of regular guest workers and other immigrants the US is willing to accept each year since the pool of potential immigrants will increase at least as fast as the population of the world. Suppose Congress were to agree that the US will accept 3.31 immigrants per 1000 population (the current rate used by the CIA).  Thus, the total number of regular guest workers plus other immigrants would not exceed 0.00331 times the previous year’s population, or about 1 million per year in the near future.  Note that since the population of the US is growing slower than the number of potential immigrants, the pressure to immigrate into the US is likely to increase more than 40% by 2050. 

 

Congress must also address the fact that many US citizens on welfare will not work because they can survive for long periods of time on welfare alone.  Long-term welfare is always counter productive.  Taxpayers should not have to support more than two children per woman (Responsible reproduction.htm).

 

Congress must also get serious about border security to minimize the illegal immigration problem in the future as populations grow much faster in poor underdeveloped countries.  The only way to reduce immigration pressure in the long run is to reduce birth rates, encourage education of women, and economic development in countries which are major sources of immigrants (CIA migration.htm). 

 

B.  Current illegal immigrants:

It is unrealistic to assume that the US will deport 10 to 12 million illegal immigrants in one year or a few years.  Consider requiring all current illegal immigrants to register for a probationary guest worker program and participate in a lottery to determine which illegal immigrant families must leave the US or obtain legal status before their allotted years in the probationary guest worker program expire. 

 

            1.  Each family of illegal immigrants which registers by the deadline will receive a random number granting 1 to 5 years probationary guest worker status.  By the end of their probationary guest worker status each must obtain regular guest worker status, US citizenship, or leave.  The time span could be longer than 5 years, but should not exceed the time span of the regular guest worker program below.

 

            2.  Those who do not register will be deported with no hope of legal reentry into the US upon capture.

 

            3.  Thus, about two million probationary guest workers would have 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 years in which to become regular guest workers, US citizens, or leave.

 

            4.  Probationary guest workers should not pay Social Security or Medicare taxes, but should pay income, sales, and property taxes and for unemployment and medical insurance.

 

            5.  Probationary guest workers should not be allowed to vote or to receive taxpayer supported welfare and may be deported for abusing the 14th Amendment right if either parent has a third child born in the US.

 

            6.  Children of probationary guest workers should attend public school.

 

This proposal would solve the current 12 million illegal immigrant problem in 5 years and add about 2 million probationary guest workers to each of the total immigrant pools for the next five years in addition to any new regular guest workers and immigrants. 

 

C.  Regular Guest Worker Program:

Any immigrant who wishes to live and work in the US more than 50% of the time should apply for US citizenship.  Others should be classified as regular guest workers. 

 

            1.  Regular guest workers should meet appropriate employment criteria.

            2.  Regular guest workers should receive a visa for up to 5 years.

            3   Regular guest worker status should be renewable.

            4.  Regular guest workers should not pay Social Security or Medicare taxes, but should pay income, sales, and property taxes and for unemployment and medical insurance.

           

            5.  Regular guest workers should not be allowed to vote or to receive taxpayer supported welfare and may be deported for abusing the 14th Amendment right if either parent has a third child born in the US.

 

            6.  Children of probationary guest workers should attend public school.

 

D.  US Citizenship:

            1.  All US citizens should be able to read, write, and speak passable English.

 

            2.  All US citizens should be able to vote provided:

                        a.  They are not serving a jail or prison sentence.

                        b.  They are not on taxpayer supported welfare.

 

            3.  All working US citizens should pay income, sales, property, Social Security, and Medicare taxes and for unemployment and medical insurance.

 

            4.  US citizens may vote (unless excluded by item 2 above) and receive taxpayer supported welfare.  However,  taxpayer supported welfare may be denied for any third, or later, child born to either parent.

 

Return to Home Page