Foreign Aid and Oligarchies

1/21/07

 

A successful democracy requires a balance of labor and capital.  Workers have more power when labor is in short supply.  When there is a surplus of labor (overpopulation), workers lose power.  The next several decades will probably continue to have a large surplus of cheap labor.  In this environment, powerful individuals, and families, tend to form ruling oligarchies in which the few rule the many since the alternative is often a very poor welfare state.

 

The wealthy democracies will probably survive, but most poor countries will become even more oligarcic.  The wealthy democracies will need to use their foreign aid, including food, to encourage reduction of birth rates in poor oligarchies since there are likely to be even fewer poor democracies.  Reducing birth rates as quickly as possible will help reduce the oversupply of labor.  Aiding the better oligarchies would also increase the probability that they might become less repressive and more democratic.

 

I suggest giving most foreign aid, including food, as grants (not loans) to those poor countries which are reducing their birth rates at about (0.5) births/1000 population/year (China achieved a reduction rate of (0.6)/1000/yr (Population.htm).).  Likewise, it seems advisable to grant immigration mainly to countries which meet this reduction in birth rate as an incentive and safety valve.  For example, if a country has a current birth rate of 40/1000, one might hope to see the annual sequence of 40, 39.5, 39, 38.5, etc. reaching 5 births/1000 in (40-5)/0.5 = 70 years.  Such countries are doing the best they can to first reach zero population growth (2 children/woman) and then actually decrease their population (approaching 1 child/woman).  The population will continue to grow until births equal deaths and then begin a slow decline as the birth rate drops below the death rate.  After the desired GDP/capita is reached, the birth rate can return to 2 children/woman. This process would take from a few years to several hundred years to reach $20,000/person/year given current GDP’s and energy consumption (Modelout.htm).  We should get started!

 

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